Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of...
Using novel microdata, we document an unintended, first-order consequence of the Protestant Reformation: a massive reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this...
View ArticleSparse Signals in the Cross-Section of Returns -- by Alexander M. Chinco,...
This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling 1-minute-ahead return forecasts using the entire cross section of lagged returns as candidate predictors....
View ArticlePopulists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the 1896 Presidential Election --...
The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has gained new salience in the wake of the 2016 contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of voting patterns...
View ArticleWhy Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of...
Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that...
View ArticleShadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation...
Traditional banking is built on four pillars: SME lending, access to public liquidity, deposit insurance, and prudential supervision. This vision has been shattered by repeated bailouts of shadow...
View ArticleEffects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets -- by Agha Ali Akram, Shyamal...
Rural to urban migration is an integral part of the development process, but there is little evidence on how out-migration transforms rural labor markets. Emigration could benefit landless village...
View ArticleArtificial Intelligence and Economic Growth -- by Philippe Aghion, Benjamin...
This paper examines the potential impact of artificial intelligence (A.I.) on economic growth. We model A.I. as the latest form of automation, a broader process dating back more than 200 years....
View ArticleBiased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments...
This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood...
View ArticleEffects of Episode-Based Payment on Health Care Spending and Utilization:...
We study how physicians respond to financial incentives imposed by episode-based bundled payment (EBP), which encourages lower spending and improved quality for an entire episode of care. Specifically,...
View ArticleThe Economics of Scale-Up -- by Jonathan M.V. Davis, Jonathan Guryan, Kelly...
Most randomized controlled trials (RCT) of social programs test interventions at modest scale. While the hope is that promising programs will be scaled up, we have few successful examples of this...
View ArticleFood vs. Fuel? Impacts of Petroleum Shipments on Agricultural Prices. -- by...
Grain shippers and political figures in North Dakota and nearby states have voiced concern that the dramatic increases in shipments of crude oil by rail have caused service delays and higher costs. We...
View ArticleThe Effects of Perceived Disease Risk and Access Costs on Infant Immunization...
This paper examines the determinants of parental decisions about infant immunization. Using the exact timing of vaccination relative to birth, we estimate the effects of local pertussis outbreaks...
View ArticleSchool District Reform in Newark: Within- and Between-School Changes in...
In 2011-12, Newark launched a set of educational reforms supported by a gift from Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan. Using data from 2009 through 2016, we evaluate the change in Newark...
View ArticleDoes Capital Scarcity Matter? -- by Anusha Chari, Peter Blair Henry, Racha...
This paper quantifies the welfare impact of a permanent increase in the level of per capita income brought about by a temporary increase in the growth rate of GDP per capita following capital account...
View ArticleInformation measure for financial time series: quantifying short-term market...
A well-interpretable measure of information has been recently proposed based on a partition obtained by intersecting a random sequence with its moving average. The partition yields disjoint sets of the...
View ArticleCan the Euro be Saved?
The economies of the eurozone countries are plagued by multiple crises, which cast major doubts over the future of the euro. In this engaging new book, leading economist Malcolm Sawyer argues that the...
View ArticleCan the Euro be Saved?
The economies of the eurozone countries are plagued by multiple crises, which cast major doubts over the future of the euro. In this engaging new book, leading economist Malcolm Sawyer argues that the...
View ArticleLedgerX Trades $1 Million in Bitcoin Derivatives in First Week - CoinDesk
The first regulated cryptocurrency derivative trades have taken place on a U.S. exchange. https://t.co/JutP9dfuI4 â moneyscience (@moneyscience) October 23,â¦
View ArticleSocial Capital and Labor Market Networks -- by Brian J. Asquith, Judith K....
We explore the links between social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer-employee data with which we...
View ArticleInformation Aversion -- by Marianne Andries, Valentin Haddad
The main features of households' attention to savings are rationalized by a model of information aversion, a preference-based fear of receiving flows of news. In line with the empirical evidence,...
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